Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Current Youth Bulge in Nepal: Demographic Bonus or Challenge


Abstract:
The central argument of this paper is that Youth Bulge is a transitional phenomenon that appears during the Demographic Transition of any developing country like Nepal. The Youth Bulge should be seen as the interaction of increasing/decreasing ‘fertility’ and ‘mortality’ rates. Considering it as demographic ‘bonus’ or ‘challenge’ require a broad understanding of to what extent the country is expanding its social and economic opportunities.

In doing so, the paper, at first, starts with the concept of youth and youth bulge and positions it to the demographic scenario of Nepal. Secondly, the paper draws understanding of ‘bonus’ side and ‘challenge’ side of Youth Bulge in Nepal through data of National Living Standard Survey, Census Report 2011 and National Population Report 2011 developed by National Planning Commission Secretariat, Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and Ministries. Third, it gives synthesis of both the ‘bonus’ side and ‘challenge’ side and finds out the underlying theoretical perspective playing behind the concept of ‘Youth Bulge’.

Finally, the paper concludes that Youth Bulge in Nepal can be either bonus or challenge; however, it depends upon the degree of expansion of social and economic opportunities and the interaction of ‘fertility’ and ‘mortality’ rates.

Key words: Youth, Youth Bulge, Conflict, Bonus, Challenge, Demographic Transition Model (DMT), Remittances, Fertility Rate, Mortality Rate, Social Opportunities